- Kenya’s economy grew by 4.6% in 2025, the weakest performance in over a decade outside the pandemic slump
- The figure missed Treasury’s 5.0% target, signaling slower-than-expected recovery
- Key sectors like agriculture, construction, and mining supported overall growth
- KNBS projects a slight rebound to 4.9% in 2026, though risks remain high
- Global tensions and oil supply concerns could push inflation higher and slow growth further
Kenya’s economic performance in 2025 has slowed down to levels not seen in more than ten years. The latest figures show the country recorded 4.6 per cent growth, a figure that has raised concern among policymakers and analysts. This marks the weakest expansion since the period disrupted by COVID-19. It also came in below the expectations set by the National Treasury. The target had been set at 5.0 per cent for the year.
The data was released by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. It confirmed that while the economy is still growing, the pace has clearly softened. The previous year, 2024, recorded 4.7 per cent growth, showing only a slight decline. However, the broader trend suggests a gradual cooling of economic momentum. Many sectors are still active, but not strong enough to push growth higher.
Even with the slowdown, several major sectors continued to support the economy. Agriculture remained one of the strongest contributors. Construction activity also maintained steady performance across different regions. Mining operations added further support to the overall output. These sectors continue to play a central role in jobs and national productivity.
KNBS noted that growth remains broad-based, meaning multiple industries are still contributing. However, the strength of these sectors has not been enough to lift the overall growth rate significantly. Economic activity has been steady but uneven. Some areas are performing well while others continue to face pressure from rising costs and weak demand. This balance has kept growth positive but limited.
Looking ahead, KNBS expects the economy to improve slightly in 2026. Growth is projected to rise to 4.9 per cent. This suggests a slow but steady recovery path. However, the outlook is not without challenges. Several external risks could affect performance in the coming months.
One of the major concerns is rising global tension involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. The conflict has raised fears of disruption in global energy markets. Any instability in oil supply could push fuel prices higher. This would directly affect Kenya, which depends heavily on imports for its energy needs.
Higher fuel costs would likely increase transport and production expenses across the economy. This could also push up the prices of goods and services. In turn, consumers may feel more pressure on their incomes. Reduced purchasing power could slow down spending, which is a key driver of economic growth.
Analysts warn that Kenya’s import-dependent structure makes it vulnerable to global shocks. Rising international oil prices often lead to local inflation. This creates a ripple effect across businesses and households. If costs continue to rise, economic activity may slow further.
The KNBS report highlights this risk clearly. It notes that external shocks could weaken the recovery path. While domestic sectors remain active, global conditions may determine the pace of growth. For now, the economy remains stable but under pressure.
The coming year will therefore be critical. Policymakers will need to balance growth support with inflation control. The performance of key sectors and global markets will shape whether Kenya can return to a stronger economic momentum or remain in a slow-growth phase.
