- Kenya’s economy is growing, but daily life remains tough for many citizens.
- Experts say GDP growth alone is not improving jobs or incomes.
- Real wages have dropped despite lower inflation levels.
- Weak budget planning and revenue gaps remain a major concern.
- Strong oversight and people-focused spending are now urgent.
Kenya’s economy is expected to grow by about five per cent in the coming years, pointing to a return to stability after several economic shocks. Government efforts in managing public finances, controlling inflation, and collecting more revenue have helped steady the economy.
However, this progress has not improved the lives of most Kenyans. Many households are struggling with higher costs of living, fewer job opportunities, and reduced access to key public services, despite positive economic headlines.
Recent data shows that workers are earning less in real terms. Average annual wages dropped from KSh 696,817 in 2022 to KSh 665,418 in 2024, cutting into household buying power.
At the same time, inflation eased from 7.7 per cent to 4.5 per cent over the same period. This contrast highlights a clear gap between national economic performance and the experience of ordinary citizens.
Economic growth has largely been driven by services and agriculture, sectors where most jobs are informal and poorly paid. These roles often lack security and offer limited long-term prospects.
Manufacturing, which is key to stable and well-paying employment, continues to shrink. According to the Institute of Public Finance, this imbalance limits the economy’s ability to create quality jobs, especially for young people.
The Institute of Public Finance also warns that the 2027 general election could disrupt economic recovery. Past elections in Kenya have often slowed investment and increased uncertainty, which may affect growth if not carefully managed.
While investment levels are slowly improving, political risks could delay progress if fiscal discipline weakens.
Daniel Ndirangu, CEO of the Institute of Public Finance, says the government must shift focus from political targets to practical spending. He argues that limited public funds should be directed to priority areas such as healthcare, education, food production, water access, social support, and gender equality.
He also points to ongoing revenue shortfalls, which suggest that government income forecasts are often too optimistic and disconnected from economic reality.
Experts say better control of public spending is critical. Reducing the use of supplementary budgets and strengthening parliamentary oversight could help cut waste and misuse of funds.
Audit reports released every year continue to flag the same issues, raising concerns about accountability and long-term planning.
If current trends continue, analysts warn that poverty and inequality could deepen. Informal workers, women, young people, and communities affected by climate shocks are the most exposed.
Underfunding in health, nutrition, water, and agriculture threatens progress in universal healthcare and food security, forcing families to rely more on their own limited resources.
As Kenya looks ahead, key areas to monitor include the accuracy of revenue targets, how austerity measures are applied, transparency in major funds, health insurance reforms, and budget support for agriculture, water, and gender-focused programmes.
Experts agree that for growth to truly work, policy must support industries that create decent jobs and strengthen farming systems that boost productivity and protect small-scale farmers. Only then will economic stability translate into real gains for citizens.
